U.S. Markets: Macro Data, Earnings, and Unusual Options Activity – Week of April 7, 2025
Your Weekly Market Briefing and Strategic Outlook
A summary of the past macroeconomic week
The week of April 7–11, 2025, painted a complex and at times contradictory picture of the U.S. economy. February’s consumer credit data showed an unexpected contraction, suggesting greater household caution despite resilient income levels. Small business sentiment deteriorated markedly, with the NFIB index falling to 97.4 and broad-based signs of weakness, particularly in sales expectations and hiring plans. On the labor front, initial jobless claims rose slightly but remained at historically low levels, while continuing claims declined, indicating some fluidity in employment transitions. The bond market sent mixed signals: the 3-year Treasury auction showed solid yet slightly cooling demand, while the 10-year auction surprised to the upside with record participation from foreign investors; the 30-year issuance was also well received. Inflation figures offered further food for thought: March’s CPI posted a 0.1% monthly decline, driven by a sharp drop in gasoline prices, yet new tariffs on Chinese imports raise the risk of renewed inflationary pressures. The PPI fell 0.4%, reinforcing this trend, although select categories such as steel saw price increases. On the energy side, crude oil inventories rose more than expected, and Cushing stockpiles climbed due to weaker exports—against a backdrop of intensifying U.S.-China trade tensions. The WASDE report showed diverging dynamics in agricultural markets, with higher corn exports but rising wheat and cotton inventories. Finally, the federal budget reported a narrower March deficit, but a sharp year-to-date increase driven by rising interest payments. The real shock came from the University of Michigan: consumer sentiment plunged to 50.8, the second-lowest reading since 1972, while 1-year inflation expectations jumped to 6.7%, reflecting a mix of distrust, price pressure, and labor market concerns. For more detail on the individual indicators summarized here, please see the sections that follow.
Equity Markets and Implied Volatility – Weekly Outlook
In our regular weekly market review, we begin by assessing recent developments in financial markets, with a focus on the VIX (Volatility Index).
VIX – Volatility Declining, but Vigilance Still Warranted
Lately, the VIX—often viewed as a barometer of market volatility—has shown signs of easing following a particularly turbulent period. After reaching levels not seen in years, driven by trade policy tensions, it now appears that the peak of instability may be behind us.
The recent decision by the U.S. administration to delay the implementation of certain tariffs has provided markets with some relief, contributing to a more constructive backdrop. Several technical indicators suggest that a normalization phase may be underway, potentially leading to a further decline in the VIX over the coming month.
Nonetheless, global uncertainty remains a key variable and should not be underestimated. For this reason, close weekly monitoring of market conditions is crucial—further signals may confirm the formation of a solid base from which markets could rebound more sustainably.
S&P 500 – Have We Found a Bottom?
The S&P 500 has recently shown early signs of a potential trend reversal. A base appears to be forming, which could pave the way for a rebound.
Heading into the new week, it will be important to watch for short-term bullish signals. While the broader trend remains downward, opportunities could arise sooner than expected. Additionally, seasonality appears to be on the market’s side, with conditions favoring a potential uptick alongside a likely decline in volatility.
Trading Activity from Last Week
Another week of sharp fluctuations for the corporate account portfolio, which managed a modest rebound compared to the previous week—but only after hitting a new relative low.
Assuming that the market may have found a short-term support level, we are now focused on gradually recovering existing positions, while remaining open to new entries should particularly favorable conditions arise.
In this context, last week we opened a new position on Astrana Health (ticker: ASTH), a stock that showed unusual activity on the May call options.
Among the possible strategies, we opted for selling the May 25 strike puts, with the intention of financing the purchase of the 40 strike calls.
However, we were unable to purchase the calls at our target price, so for now we only hold the naked put position.
The suspicious activity relates specifically to the May 40 calls, which traded in the thousands at prices between 0.25 and 0.30—a level too low to justify either naked or covered selling.
As usual, we treat this type of movement as a hypothesis, and respond with low-risk, consistent trading behavior.
The fundamentals of ASTH remain strong, so we do not consider the naked put position to be a significant risk.
During the course of this week, some of our long call positions will expire—most likely worthless—but they were placed as hedges to protect near-the-money covered call writing strategies on other maturities.
We will also assess whether it makes sense to renew those hedges, depending on market developments.
U.S. Macroeconomic Calendar – Week of April 14, 2025
Monday, April 14, 2025
No major macroeconomic data releases are scheduled for today. However, two public speeches by Federal Reserve officials are on the agenda:
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At 6:00 PM EDT, Patrick Harker, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, will deliver remarks.
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At 7:40 PM EDT, Raphael Bostic, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, is scheduled to speak.
Markets will closely monitor these interventions for any guidance on future monetary policy direction, particularly in light of recent inflationary trends and ongoing trade tensions.
Tuesday, April 15, 2025
Several key economic indicators are expected today (times listed in Central European Summer Time – CEST):
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2:30 PM – Empire State Manufacturing Index for April: provides insights into business conditions in New York’s manufacturing sector.
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2:30 PM – Import and Export Price Indexes for March: useful for assessing trade-related inflationary pressures.
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4:00 PM – Business Inventories and Sales for February: offers a view of supply-demand dynamics in the industrial sector.
These indicators will be watched closely to better assess the current health of the U.S. economy and their potential implications for monetary policy.
Wednesday, April 16, 2025
Today will see the release of several important macroeconomic indicators (all times in CEST):
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2:30 PM – Retail Sales for March: a key measure of household consumption and domestic demand.
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3:15 PM – Industrial Production for March: tracks changes in output across manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors.
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4:00 PM – Business Inventories and Sales (February): sheds light on inventory dynamics and industrial activity.
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4:30 PM – Weekly Crude Oil Inventories (EIA): indicates U.S. commercial oil stock levels and helps assess energy market trends.
These data points will be scrutinized by analysts and policymakers to evaluate the overall trajectory of the U.S. economy and potential adjustments in monetary policy.
Thursday, April 17, 2025
A number of significant indicators will be released today, all at 2:30 PM CEST:
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Building Permits for March: measures the number of residential construction permits issued.
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Housing Starts for March: tracks the initiation of new residential construction projects.
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Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for April: gauges manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district.
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Initial Jobless Claims: reports the number of new unemployment claims filed during the prior week.
These indicators will provide timely insight into the real estate market, manufacturing conditions, and labor market dynamics.
Friday, April 18, 2025 – Markets Closed for Easter Holiday
No macroeconomic data releases are scheduled.
This Week’s Sector Focus: Biotech and Pharmaceuticals
This week, we turn our attention to the biotech and pharmaceutical sector, currently positioned at the intersection of key fundamental, macroeconomic, and geopolitical drivers. The upcoming earnings releases from Johnson & Johnson and Abbott Laboratories provide a valuable opportunity to assess the performance of two industry leaders, both known for their diversified business models and strong exposure to medical innovation.
J&J, in particular, has strengthened its focus on pharmaceuticals and medical devices following the spin-off of its consumer health division. Meanwhile, Abbott continues to expand its leadership in diabetes monitoring technologies and molecular diagnostics.
From a macroeconomic standpoint, the ongoing disinflationary trend could drive investors toward more defensive, non-cyclical sectors—healthcare being a prime candidate. Additionally, the recent surge in short-term inflation expectations, as reflected in the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index, has renewed interest in “safe haven” sectors during periods of uncertainty.
On the geopolitical front, the escalating U.S.–China trade conflict has so far had only a limited impact on healthcare. However, potential disruptions in the supply chains for active pharmaceutical ingredients and medical devices remain a risk worth monitoring.
In summary, the sector may offer a pocket of relative stability in the near term, with an emphasis on companies that boast high profitability and strong innovation pipelines. Thematic ETFs such as XLV (Health Care Select Sector SPDR) or IBB (iShares Biotechnology ETF) could provide diversified exposure for those looking to capture a potential defensive rotation in the market.
Main Earnings Reports of the Week
Monday, April 14
Goldman Sachs (GS) – Before market open
Goldman Sachs is a global investment bank providing services in investment banking, trading, and wealth management for institutional and high-net-worth clients.
Tuesday, April 15
Bank of America (BAC) – Before market open
Bank of America is a leading U.S. financial institution offering diversified banking, investment, and wealth management services across retail and corporate segments.
Citigroup (C) – Before market open
Citigroup is a global financial services firm focused on institutional banking, global markets, and U.S.-based personal banking and wealth management.
Interactive Brokers (IBKR) – After market close
Interactive Brokers is a leading electronic brokerage platform catering to professional traders, hedge funds, and active investors with global market access.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) – Before market open
Johnson & Johnson is a global healthcare giant operating across pharmaceuticals, medical devices, and, until recently, consumer health products.
United Airlines (UAL) – After market close
United Airlines is a major U.S. airline operating a broad network of domestic and international routes for business and leisure travel.
Wednesday, April 16
Alcoa (AA) – After market close
Alcoa is a leading global producer of primary aluminum, bauxite, and alumina, with vertically integrated operations across multiple continents.
Abbott Laboratories (ABT) – Before market open
Abbott is a global healthcare company with a diversified portfolio across diagnostics, medical devices, nutrition, and branded generics.
First Horizon National (FHN) – Before market open
First Horizon is a regional U.S. bank focused on commercial and retail banking services, with a strong footprint in the southeastern United States.
Liberty Oilfield Services (LBRT) – After market close
Liberty provides hydraulic fracturing and well completion services for the U.S. onshore oil and gas industry.
Las Vegas Sands (LVS) – Before market open
Las Vegas Sands operates luxury casino resorts, primarily in Asia, with key properties in Macao and Singapore.
Bank of the Ozarks (OZK) – After market close
Bank OZK is a regional bank known for its commercial real estate lending in major U.S. metropolitan areas.
Thursday, April 17
American Express (AXP) – Before market open
American Express is a global financial services company offering integrated payment solutions and credit services with a vertically integrated business model.
Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) – Before market open
Huntington is a regional bank focused on retail and commercial banking across the Midwest and Southern U.S., with an emphasis on community banking and risk discipline.
Infosys Technologies (INFY) – Before market open
Infosys is a global IT consulting and services firm based in India, providing end-to-end digital transformation, outsourcing, and cloud-based solutions.
KeyCorp (KEY) – Before market open
KeyCorp is a U.S. regional bank operating primarily through KeyBank, offering retail and corporate banking services in the Midwest and Northeast.
Netflix (NFLX) – After market close
Netflix is the world’s largest streaming entertainment provider, known for its global subscriber base and original content strategy.
Regions Financial (RF) – Before market open
Regions Financial is a regional bank serving the Southern and Midwestern U.S., offering a full range of consumer and business financial services.
Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) – Before market open
Charles Schwab is a leading U.S. financial services company specializing in brokerage, banking, and wealth management, with over $8.9 trillion in client assets.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) – Before market open
TSMC is the world’s largest independent semiconductor foundry, supplying cutting-edge chips for leading tech companies worldwide.
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) – Before market open
UnitedHealth is the largest healthcare and insurance services provider in the U.S., integrating medical coverage with data-driven healthcare solutions through UnitedHealthcare and Optum.
Friday, April 18
There are no significant earnings announcements scheduled.
