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Probability-based trading: discover Trade AI

Probability-based trading works only with proper tools

Is probability-based trading the key to success in options strategies?

It sure is, but on one condition: that you know how to properly calculate probabilities!

Trade AI is a suite of tools dedicated to analyzing the risk and return of trading strategies on stock options, ETF options, and on underlying stocks and ETFs themselves.

The methodological approach is based on proprietary probability calculation algorithms.

Probability calculation models all attempt to describe the reality of the data as best as possible.

But a model, by definition, can only represent an approximation of reality.

Consequently, no model can ever be reliable all the time, in any situation.

It is difficult, therefore, to identify one computational model that can always be better than all others.

To put it simple, probability-based trading works only if you do the math in the right way.

Trade AI’s philosophy, therefore, is that it is better to have many different models, and to wait until all those models give similar readings of a certain phenomenon, before taking any position in the financial markets.

When the probability values are all aligned, the trader can open positions with greater operational peace of mind, knowing that the outcome will certainly not be guaranteed, but will still be very likely.

The models used by the Trade AI platform thus enable traders to derive that competitive advantage that is essential to beating their opponent in a trade.

This is how we understand the concept of probability-based trading.

Below you will find a series of videos that will show you the essential features of the Trade AI platform.

When you are done with them, there are other contents you might enjoy to watch, if you didn’t already.

Go to the page of our Quick Start Package and find out what you can do in order to move your first steps into the world of Trade AI.

In order to understand why you shouldn’t ever rely on the normal model, and why you need to look at risk and reward of your trading strategies on options, shares and ETFs, with a different eye, don’t miss the video dedicated to our Free Probability Calculator.

You can find it in our homepage.

Next to the video, you will also find the link to follow in order to use it directly on your own.

And if all this resounds with you and you want to better understand what our approach to trading is, then watch the video that explains in detail the methodology of Trade AI, and makes you understand on what logic the tools of the platform are built.

When you’re done, you will clearly understand what probability-based trading means to us, and what we can do to improve the effectiveness of your trading strategies.

I hope everything will be clear to you, but if not, please do not hesitate to contact us for further information or clarification.

Probability-based trading tools for options strategies

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Options Extreme Report

Take the first step onto the discovery of Trade AI and watch what Options Extreme Report can do for you.

Intraday traded volume, open interest, implied volatility: the three keys for spotting “strange” moves in the options markets.

Every time some big players take huge positions in the options markets, they do it for reasons we may not understand.

But that is not the point.

The point is that behind every big move there is big money, and likely big expectations too.

This brings potential opportunities also for all the traders able to spot these peculiar situations in real time, having the proper tool in order to do that.

And this is what Options Extreme Report is for.

Options Trade Builder

Looking for a tool giving you lists of trades on some underlying you like having high probability of success and positive expected return?

Whether you are looking at some stock or ETF, whether you have directional or non-directional expectations, if you don’t equip yourself with tools helping you in your quest for the best trades your risk is to waste time every day and miss lots of good opportunities.

With Options Trade Builder you will no longer miss any good trades on the securities you are interested in.

Keep following your path to the discovery of Trade AI platform.

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Earnings Trade Signals

As the earnings release dates of publicly traded companies approach, option premiums rise thanks to the increase in implied volatility.

All of this generates great opportunities for options traders, provided they are equipped with effective tools to select the trades most likely to succeed.

This is what Earnings Trade Signals is for.

And this is where probability-based trading has its greatest value.

Options Trading Ideas

With more than five thousand optionable underlyings available, the daily search for the most promising options trades can be a mission impossible, unless one has effective screening tools.

The risk, otherwise, is to end up focusing always and only on the same few securities, the most popular ones, and then perhaps not finding any interesting trades, and realizing only in retrospect that you missed several opportunities on other underlyings not even considered.

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Options Analyzer

Do you remember that probability-based trading is all a matter of how you calculate probabilities?

If you paid attention during the introductory video, you will also remember that none of Trade AI’s probabilistic models is better than the others, and that strength comes from the synergy of all the models.

If you are considering making some kind of options trade, and wondering what the Trade AI platform would say about it, then Options Analyzer is the tool for you.

Here, in fact, you can set up the trades of your preference, on the securities, expirations and strikes you choose, and check the platform’s probabilistic readings in accordance with the various calculation models.

Also, thanks to our time machine, you can check which probabilistic readings went with trades you have made, or might have made, in the past.

And you can also check what probability of success was associated with your active trades to date at the time you opened them.

Options Analyzer Pro

Let’s continue on the path of probability-based trading.

If you have a portfolio of stocks and/or ETFs that you want to keep active while waiting for prices to rise, you can still take advantage of options written on components of that portfolio to generate additional cash flow.

I’m talking about selling covered calls, of course.

But to avoid the risk of having to sell your shares at penalizing prices, while trying to maximize the expected return, you must have a tool at your side that allows you to select the best calls every time.

Trade AI’s Call Probability Matrix tool is your best ally in this regard.

And if you want to sell naked puts, trying to avoid assignments as much as possible, while still collecting good profits, you can’t do without the Put Probability Matrix.

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Probability-based trading tools for stocks and ETFs strategies

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Stock Analyzer

Probability-based trading isn’t just about options.

On the contrary, any analysis you do aimed at finding the best options opportunities you are still doing a statistical analysis on the underlying and its typical behavior.

As a result, Trade AI’s probabilistic models can also be used to improve your trading in stocks and ETFs.

Our proprietary methodology allows you to correctly evaluate the real past performance of an asset and formulate correct expectations for the future one.

Based on probabilistic models that aim to describe the true behavior of the market and predict its expected future trend in the most effective way possible, Trade AI provides you with all the tools for a timely assessment of risk and return.

Stocks Trading Ideas

Do you feel lost, every day, in the search for the most interesting deals on stocks and ETFs?

Would you like to be able to take advantage of pre-compiled search algorithms that do the screening work for you, based on the probability of success?

Stocks Trading Ideas scans the entire market in real time and provides you with lists of underlyings from which to start in your search for the perfect trade.

Go through the lists of instruments generated by our algorithms, save time every day and forget about the stress of market screening work.

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Portfolio Builder

The construction of the best stock and ETF portfolios goes through a long and difficult process of data analysis, asset selection, and periodic recalculation of all the parameters, to decide whether to maintain the current composition or whether to modify it instead.

The inclusion/exclusion criteria for portfolio components are typically based on fundamental analysis and technical analysis variables.

Typically, statistical parameters are also considered, such as volatility, Beta, and the correlations between the various assets and the reference benchmark.

But very rarely are criteria for the probabilistic evaluation of the future upward or downward trend included in the analyses.

Trade AI’s Portfolio Builder allows you to do just this, bringing together fundamental analysis, technical analysis, statistics and probability.