US Markets: Macroeconomic Data, Earnings, and Unusual Options Activity – Week of March 3, 2025

Monday Market Outlook by Trade AI

Welcome to the weekly Monday Market Outlook by Trade AI, the first edition in this new format!

In this newsletter, we will analyze key macroeconomic data, the most important upcoming earnings reports, and unusual options activity.

Additionally, we will take a deep dive into market sentiment, sector trends, and geopolitical events that could influence stock market performance.

What’s inside this first edition?

✅ The most anticipated economic data and its potential market impact
✅ Key companies reporting earnings, with sector insights and analyst expectations
✅ Unusual options activity and potential future scenarios
✅ Investor sentiment and regulatory events to watch

Get ready for the trading week with the most important insights!

Macroeconomic Data and Key Events of the Week

This week, investors will focus on several key economic indicators and events:

Tuesday, March 4

  • ISM Manufacturing PMI: Expected at 50.6, slightly down from 50.9. The market will assess potential signs of a slowdown in industrial activity.

Wednesday, March 5

  • ADP Employment Report: A preview of the private sector labor market, with a consensus of +140000 new jobs.

Thursday, March 6

  • US Trade Balance: The trade deficit is expected at 93.1 billion dollars, improving from the previous 98.4 billion.
  • Jobless Claims: Expected at 236000, signaling stability in the labor market.

Friday, March 7

  • US Unemployment Rate: Expected to remain stable at 4%, with a focus on potential signs of labor market deceleration.
  • Nonfarm Payrolls: Forecast at +156000 new jobs, potentially slowing down from the previous +143000.

Key Events of the Week

  • Tuesday, March 4: President Donald Trump will deliver his first address to Congress since his re-election. Potential new trade tariffs against China, Mexico, and Canada could be announced, impacting global markets.
  • Thursday, March 6: OPEC decision expected. The market anticipates a confirmation of production cuts, which could influence oil prices.

Sector Focus: Semiconductors in the Spotlight

This week, Marvell Technology (MRVL) and Broadcom (AVGO) will report earnings, while the semiconductor sector remains under pressure for several reasons:

  • Chip demand: Growth in artificial intelligence and 5G continues to drive investment in the sector. However, short-term prospects also depend on consumer tech spending and inventory levels.
  • Trade restrictions: US policy on advanced chip exports to China remains a major issue, potentially affecting growth prospects for companies in the sector.
  • Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) performance: The SOX index has gained 12% year-to-date, but it is approaching a key resistance level.

Companies Set to Report Earnings

Here is an overview of the major companies releasing their quarterly results:

Tuesday, March 4

  • Best Buy (BBY), before market open: Electronics retail chain. Expected EPS: 2.05 USD. Online sales are growing, but margins may come under pressure.
  • Box Inc. (BOX), after market close: Cloud solutions provider reporting after market close. Expected EPS: 0.25 USD. Growing competition with industry giants could impact guidance.

Wednesday, March 5

  • Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), before market open: Fashion retail. Expected EPS: 1.15 USD. Competitive sector, with the brand focusing on repositioning toward younger customers.
  • Campbell Soup (CPB), before market open: Food industry. Expected EPS: 0.85 USD. Watch for consumer demand shifts toward healthier products.
  • Foot Locker (FL), before market open: Sports retail. Expected EPS: 1.50 USD. Facing strong competition from direct-to-consumer brands like Nike and Adidas.
  • Marvell Technology (MRVL), after market close: Semiconductors. Expected EPS: 0.45 USD. Focus on demand in the data center and AI segments.

Thursday, March 6

  • Broadcom (AVGO), after market close: Semiconductors. Expected EPS: 7.25 USD. Watch for growth in AI and data center segments.
  • Burlington Stores (BURL), before market open: Retail. Expected EPS: 3.20 USD. The discount apparel chain could benefit from cost-conscious consumers.
  • Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), after market close: IT solutions. Expected EPS: 0.48 USD. The transition to hybrid cloud could be a key driver.
  • Macy’s (M), before market open: Traditional retail. Expected EPS: 2.50 USD. The struggle in brick-and-mortar retail remains a major challenge.

Friday, March 7

Unusual Options Activity

Notable unusual trading activity detected:

  • Myriad Genetics Inc. (MYGN): Heavy call volume on 18$ strike (March 2025) with 1300 new call contracts opened at a 0.10 USD ask price. Could this indicate bullish expectations related to regulatory approvals or acquisitions?
  • Playstudios Inc. (MYPS): Over 2000 put contracts on the 1$ strike traded at a 0.05 USD ask price. This price level makes selling these options nearly impossible—does it signal deep pessimism about the company’s outlook?

Market Sentiment

VIX Index

The VIX, known as the “fear index,” has risen recently, indicating higher market volatility expectations.

This increase suggests growing caution among investors, likely in response to economic and geopolitical uncertainties. It is crucial to monitor these indicators closely to assess potential implications for investment portfolios.

This concludes our Monday Market Outlook for the week. Stay informed, trade smart, and watch for the key events shaping the markets!