Market Analysis and Options Trading Ideas – Week of March 31, 2025

Trade AI’s Monday Insights

Support test, rebound, correction… What’s next?

The U.S. stock market resumed its decline after a modest rebound attempt in the previous week.

Looking at the chart of EQAL, our now well-known ETF, the March 13 low stands out as a significant pivot point, for at least three key reasons.

First: March 13 has historically been a bullish setup for the U.S. stock market, with seasonality suggesting a higher probability of upward movement than a decline.

Second: That low occurred in the area of a previous key resistance level, which now appears to have turned into support.

Third: If we take the prior bullish leg before the recent multi-month correction and apply Fibonacci retracements (for those who believe in them) between the late November 2024 high and the mid-October 2022 low, we’ll find that the 38.2% level coincides precisely with that March 13 low.

However, if the 46-point level breaks, the next potential landing zone could be in the 44.20–44.30 range: the 50% retracement of the move.

Personally, I’m not a fan of Fibonacci retracements, especially the 50%, which isn’t technically a Fibonacci level but rather a psychological support that, for some obscure reason, everyone seems to revere.

grafico di medio termine EQAL

U.S. Macroeconomic Data – Week of March 31, 2025

Monday, March 31
No significant macroeconomic data scheduled.

Tuesday, April 1

  • 9:30 AM (ET): S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for March

  • 10:00 AM (ET): ISM Manufacturing Index for March

  • 10:00 AM (ET): February Construction Spending

  • 10:00 AM (ET): JOLTS Job Openings Report for February

  • Throughout the day: March Auto Sales Data

Wednesday, April 2

  • 8:15 AM (ET): ADP Private Employment Report for March

  • 10:00 AM (ET): Factory Orders for February

Thursday, April 3

  • 8:30 AM (ET): Trade Balance (Goods & Services) for February

  • 8:30 AM (ET): Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 29

  • 9:45 AM (ET): S&P Global Services PMI for March

  • 10:00 AM (ET): ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for March

Friday, April 4

  • 8:30 AM (ET): March Employment Report, including:

    • Non-Farm Payrolls

    • Unemployment Rate

    • Average Hourly Earnings

Sector Focus: Challenges and Momentum in Semiconductors

The semiconductor sector is experiencing significant growth in 2025, driven by rising demand for AI and data center chips.

According to ING analysts, the global semiconductor market is expected to grow by nearly 10% this year.

Meanwhile, China is projected to maintain its lead in investments in new chipmaking equipment, with estimated spending of $38 billion—despite a 24% decline from the previous year.

For investors seeking medium-term exposure to the semiconductor space, ETFs represent effective tools for diversified access.

Two notable options include:

  • iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX): Tracks a U.S.-listed index of semiconductor companies.

  • VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): Offers exposure to leading semiconductor and related equipment manufacturers.

Both ETFs provide liquidity and diversification, making them suitable instruments for medium-term investors in the semiconductor space.

Key Earnings This Week

Another relatively quiet week on the earnings front, with few well-known companies reporting results.

Monday, March 31
Westport Fuel Systems (WPRT) – Before Market Open
Westport Fuel Systems is a Canadian company that develops and manufactures advanced solutions for sustainable mobility. Its core focus is on natural gas, renewable gas, hydrogen, and propane fuel systems for internal combustion engines, serving light, commercial, and industrial vehicle markets across North America, Europe, and Asia—particularly in regions incentivizing energy transition in transportation.

Tuesday, April 1
No notable earnings releases.

Wednesday, April 2
No notable earnings releases.

Thursday, April 3

Acuity Brands (AYI) – Before Market Open
Acuity Brands is a U.S.-based company specializing in lighting and building management solutions, with a particular focus on the integration of hardware and software for intelligent lighting and energy control.

Conagra Brands (CAG) – Before Market Open
Conagra Brands is a leading U.S. food company, with a diversified portfolio of packaged and frozen food brands including Healthy Choice, Hunt’s, Birds Eye, Slim Jim, and other well-known names in both retail and food service.

Guess (GES) – After Market Close
Guess is a global fashion brand based in the U.S., renowned for its denim-inspired style and a product range that includes clothing, accessories, and footwear for men, women, and children.

Friday, April 4
No notable earnings releases.

Options Trading Activity: What Happened Last Week?

No new trades were opened last week.

We identified an issue in the Options Extreme Report, specifically in the section that tracks unusual activity in individual option series—it returned a blank screen.

We’re currently awaiting a resolution to restore this functionality.

The absence of significant earnings and high-probability trading signals kept us in a forced holding pattern.

Nonetheless, we continue to monitor the market, and we’ll be sure to highlight any emerging opportunities.

Speaking of unusual activity, we haven’t revisited CBRE lately because it appears a wide vertical spread was implemented—short call at 135, long call at 150.

As such, expectations of a strong directional move have likely diminished.